1. The Federal Reserve's rate cut will support markets but keep inflation above the 2% target; 2. The decision to cut rates is puzzling given persistent inflation above the 2% goal; 3. The Fed's board member warns of the risks of prolonged inflation.

1. Inflation poses a challenge to dividend investors; 2. Focus on companies with pricing power and low input costs; 3. Prioritize revenue growth and controlled operating expenses; 4. Business models like royalties, exchange operators, and streamers offer unique advantages during inflationary times.

1. The Nasdaq reached 20,000 points for the first time, driven by the November inflation report meeting expectations, which strengthened predictions of Fed rate cuts. 2. Major indices declined as investors assessed higher producer prices and unemployment claims, while tech stocks showed mixed performance. 3. China launched an antitrust probe into Nvidia following U.S. chip restrictions, causing share prices to fall 2% on Monday. 4. The November CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year, with core inflation remaining at 3.3%. 5. Crypto markets experienced significant momentum, with Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 again on Wednesday.

1. The S&P 500 snapped a three-week win streak due to market breadth concerns and inflation data. 2. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by a quarter-point next week. 3. Technology stocks, particularly Broadcom, were a highlight despite the overall market decline.

1. The Fed shifts focus back to inflation this week with the release of the November consumer price index; 2. Economic expectations for a 0.3% rise in both headline and core CPI; 3. The article highlights upcoming earnings reports from major companies and financial conferences.

1. The U.S. equity markets logged their second straight weekly gain despite concerns about tariffs and inflation. 2. The President-elect announced plans for tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China. 3. The Fed's minutes indicated a possibility of pausing rate cuts if inflation remains high.

1. The macro environment in 2024 differs significantly from 2016, suggesting the effectiveness of the 2016 Trump playbook may be diminished. 2. Inflation is higher, debt and deficits are greater, and the global economy is on the brink of recession. 3. The S&P 500 is in a bubble, with the Shiller P/E ratio at a second-highest level ever.

➀ The phrase 'It's the economy, stupid' explains why Kamala Harris may have lost the election; ➁ 32% of voters in key states considered the economy the most important issue; ➁ 46% of voters felt their family was worse off than four years ago; ➂ Despite economic indicators being positive, 68% of voters thought the economy was not good or poor.

1. The U.S. Treasury market is losing customers due to its reliance on issuing more debt to pay existing debt, making it unsustainable. 2. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of U.S. Treasury bonds, causing investors to lose money in real terms. 3. Traditional buyers are decreasing their demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, while alternative assets like gold are gaining popularity as a hedge.

1. Wall Street is set for a busy week with key economic data on growth, inflation, and the labor market. 2. Earnings season accelerates with major companies reporting results. 3. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to cut interest rates in November.

1. Major indices experienced mixed movements due to higher-than-expected September inflation and geopolitical tensions; 2. The September CPI report indicated a 2.4% year-over-year increase, potentially halting the Fed's rate cuts; 3. Geopolitical events, including Middle East unrest and Hurricane Milton, have heightened market volatility, impacting sectors like energy, tourism, and retail.

1. Headline inflation numbers are slightly above the Fed's target, primarily due to shelter cost estimation methods; 2. Interest rates, particularly mortgage rates, remain high relative to ex-shelter inflation; 3. Shelter cost inflation has been high and declining slowly, more slowly than expected.

1. In September, inflation topped the list of concerns for businesses, with 23% reporting it as their biggest issue; 2. Quality of labor and taxes were the next most common concerns; 3. Taxes were the third most common response at 14%, slightly up from the previous month.

1. The Black Bear Value Fund returned +0.9% in September and +5.5% YTD, outperforming the S&P 500 and HFRI Index. 2. The Fund increased its credit shorts and short-term interest rate/credit instruments, betting on higher rates and wider spreads. 3. The Fund's top holdings include metallurgical coal producers and a building materials company with strong free cash flow. 4. The author expresses concern about the normalization of antisemitism in society.

1. The upcoming economic data release includes the September CPI report, with expectations of a steady core inflation rate. 2. The market awaits the CPI print to gauge the potential size of the next Fed cut. 3. The week ahead is marked by AI events, earnings reports from major companies, and the Middle East developments affecting oil markets.

1. The CPI report gains importance after a stronger-than-expected job report; 2. Analysts predict a slight decrease in inflation rates; 3. The CPI swaps market anticipates higher inflation than analysts; 4. Equity market reactions hinge on implied volatility; 5. Potential short-term stock price increases post-CPI report.

1. Investors are aware of the Fed's willingness to cut interest rates in response to economic and labor market trouble. 2. With the 10-year Treasury Note yield below 4%, there is limited room for further rate cuts. 3. Even a soft landing scenario suggests nominal GDP growth around 4%, which aligns with historical long-term rate levels.

➀ Hurricane Helene has caused severe flooding in Spruce Pine, North Carolina, home to the world's highest quality quartz essential for semiconductor production; ➁ The flooding could disrupt the $500 billion semiconductor industry, potentially leading to higher inflation; ➂ Spruce Pine has previously been affected by natural disasters impacting its mining operations, which could now have a significant global economic impact.

1. The Fed's aggressive 0.5% rate cut risks devaluing the dollar, potentially spiking inflation and commodity prices, while destabilizing the U.S. financial system. 2. Realty Income's valuation is at risk due to the potential for rising inflation and long-term interest rates, impacting consumer spending and retail property lease demand. 3. The author downgrades Realty Income from Buy to Hold, waiting for better clarity on the direction of the economy and/or a significant price decline to open a better risk-reward entry.

1. Gold has historically performed well during economic uncertainty, particularly with falling interest rates and rising inflation; 2. The article examines different economic scenarios and how gold has reacted, including falling interest rates and slower economy, rapid economic slowdown, and falling inflation; 3. The author notes that while historical patterns can provide insights, the gold market is influenced by a complex interplay of economic, geopolitical, and market factors.