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今天

  • Nebius Group: My Biggest AI Portfolio Position
    1. Nebius Group experiences explosive 385% YoY sales growth in AI infrastructure, targeting $1B annual recurring revenue; 2. Clear path to profitability with 20-30% EBIT margins despite current losses, supporting strong re-rating potential; 3. Valuation justified by faster growth versus peers like Nvidia, with 10-12x 2026e sales multiple driving author's conviction as largest AI position.
  • Value Vacation: Five Top Emerging Market Financials
    1. TSMC achieves a breakthrough in 2nm semiconductor technology using Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistors, enhancing performance and energy efficiency; 2. Mass production is expected by 2025, solidifying TSMC's leadership in advanced chip manufacturing; 3. The development intensifies competition with Intel and Samsung in next-generation semiconductor nodes.
  • Inside The Robotaxi Wars: Tesla Vs. The World
    1. TSMC's 2nm process will enter risk production in 2024, with mass production planned for 2025; 2. Intel's 18A process aims for production in 2024, targeting both internal and external customers; 3. Samsung accelerates 2nm development, planning production in 2025 with a focus on HBM3 and AI chips.
  • Citigroup: Hitting New Highs - Still Worth Chasing, Or Time To Cool Off?
    1. Citigroup's stock has risen 20% since January, prompting a downgrade to Hold due to diminished upside potential; 2. The bank must demonstrate sustained earnings growth and improved returns to justify higher valuations, despite trading at a discount; 3. Investors are advised to wait for a pullback or new catalysts, as Citi's current valuation hinges on proving long-term profitability amid weaker ROE and margins compared to peers.
  • Roku: Amazon And Profits Are Coming
    1. Roku faces decelerating growth but maintains a strong net cash position and progress toward profitability; 2. Management expresses confidence in long-term streaming trends and profitability goals despite macroeconomic challenges; 3. Valuation appears reasonable with potential for double-digit returns, though risks include competition, margin pressures, and overinvestment in subscription services.
  • TLH: Various Key Rates Are Compelling
    1. TSMC's stock surged 34% in 2024 due to strong AI chip demand and leadership in advanced manufacturing; 2. GlobalFoundries shares fell 21% amid weak consumer electronics demand and inventory corrections; 3. The divergence reflects growing market segmentation between AI-driven and traditional semiconductor applications.
  • Politics And The Markets 06/30/25
    1. Etch process is crucial for creating micro-scale patterns on semiconductor wafers with nanoscale precision; 2. Key challenges include material selectivity, uniformity control, and defect minimization; 3. Advanced techniques like plasma etching and atomic layer etching address evolving industry demands.
  • June 29

  • UTF: Explosive Run Looks Unlikely To Stop
    1. UTF has outperformed the market over the past year, offering a 7% distribution yield; 2. The fund's diversified exposure to utilities, industrials, energy, AI/data centers, and reshoring supports long-term infrastructure growth; 3. Leverage enhances returns but introduces risk; however, lower interest rates and a relative valuation discount suggest potential for further gains.
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb: You Might Wish You Bought More Now (Upgrade)
    1. The semiconductor industry is grappling with severe supply chain disruptions caused by prolonged global chip shortages; 2. Geopolitical tensions and pandemic-related delays have exacerbated production bottlenecks and material scarcity; 3. Industry leaders are accelerating localized manufacturing and advanced packaging technologies to ensure long-term resilience.
  • Crown Castle Remains In Play
    1. The author maintains a 'buy' rating on Crown Castle (CCI) despite lower-than-expected asset sale proceeds, citing debt reduction and share buybacks as key strengths; 2. Short-term financial challenges from Sprint contract cancellations and asset sales are expected to ease, with management projecting improved cash flow and reduced leverage post-transaction; 3. CCI's valuation appears attractive compared to peers like American Tower, supported by improving leverage metrics and long-term growth drivers in mobile data and connected devices.
  • Markets Weekly Outlook - June U.S. NFP, Global PMIs And German Employment
    1. Renewed market optimism followed US-mediated Israel-Iran ceasefire; 2. Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit record highs amid improved sentiment; 3. US Dollar initially surged but retreated as risk appetite strengthened post-ceasefire.
  • S&P 500 Snapshot: New Record High
    1. The U.S. announced increased tariffs on Chinese semiconductors and electric vehicles to counter unfair trade practices; 2. The move aims to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances; 3. Analysts warn of potential retaliatory measures and further strain on U.S.-China economic relations.
  • Starbucks: Strategy Might Take A While To See Its Results
    1. Starbucks has experienced stagnating comparable sales and margin contraction in recent years, significantly underperforming industry benchmarks; 2. The 'Back to Starbucks' strategy emphasizes menu simplification, reduced discounts, and compact store formats to enhance operational efficiency and profitability; 3. Despite strategic adjustments, near-term growth prospects remain uncertain, and the stock's valuation fails to reflect persistent operational challenges and competitive pressures.
  • June 28

  • Dividend Powerhouses: Top 5 Stocks With Yields Over 4%
    1. The article analyzes how geopolitical tensions are driving nations to compete for dominance in semiconductor manufacturing; 2. It highlights vulnerabilities in the global chip supply chain and efforts by countries to achieve self-reliance; 3. The piece discusses the long-term implications of these shifts on technological innovation and economic security.
  • My Oil And Gas Income Is Glorious And Strong
    1. The author emphasizes collecting income from essential economic sectors like oil and gas, which remain critical to daily life; 2. Two investment opportunities tied to oil prices are analyzed for generating reliable cash flow; 3. The focus is on building retirement income through high-yield strategies, with a community-driven approach to sustainable investing.
  • Nvidia: The Music Is About To Stop
    1. Samsung faces delays in US factory construction and talent shortages impacting semiconductor ambitions; 2. Struggles in 2nm process competition with TSMC, with key engineers leaving for competitors; 3. Market share declines as TSMC dominates 3nm production, Samsung plans advanced packaging technology counterattack.
  • What Moved Markets This Week
    1. The global semiconductor shortage is worsening due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions; 2. Governments and companies are prioritizing domestic production and strategic partnerships to secure supplies; 3. Long-term solutions focus on diversifying manufacturing hubs and investing in R&D to enhance resilience.
  • Coinbase Is Implicitly 'Eating Financial Services' And To That, I Say, Bon Appétit!
    1. South Korea's semiconductor exports surged by 56% in May 2024, driven by AI and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) demand; 2. The growth reflects global tech supply chain adjustments amid U.S.-China tensions and export controls; 3. South Korea aims to strengthen partnerships with the U.S. and diversify production to maintain semiconductor leadership.
  • PDI: Inflection Point Ahead
    1. Slowing inflation increases the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in H2 2025, benefiting PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI); 2. PDI currently offers a 14% yield, 1.45 percentage points above its 3-year average, signaling potential undervaluation; 3. Key risks include delayed rate cuts or inflation resurgence from trade conflicts, though recent U.S.-China trade agreements mitigate such risks.
  • Uber Vs. Lyft: Why I Buy Uber And Not The Other
    1. TSMC announces its A16 chip manufacturing technology, set to debut in 2026, using GAA transistors to enhance AI chip performance and power efficiency; 2. The technology will directly compete with Intel’s 14A process node, intensifying the semiconductor manufacturing rivalry; 3. GAA transistors enable higher transistor density and energy efficiency, critical for advancing AI and high-performance computing applications.
  • Oklo Priced For Very Strong Execution - Not Enough Upside
    1. The global semiconductor industry is grappling with supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions; 2. Major economies are accelerating domestic chip production to reduce reliance on external suppliers; 3. Emerging technologies like AI and quantum computing are driving demand for advanced semiconductor solutions.
  • American Express: Don't Chase The Rally
    1. ASML, a key semiconductor equipment maker, faces stricter Dutch export controls under U.S. pressure to limit advanced chip tech to China; 2. China criticizes the restrictions as coercive and unfair, impacting its domestic chip industry; 3. The move reflects escalating tech competition and supply chain fragmentation amid U.S.-China tensions.
  • Zeta: Everything You Need To Know About Why Its A Buy
    1. The global chip shortage has caused severe supply chain disruptions in the semiconductor industry, impacting automotive and electronics manufacturing; 2. Companies are adopting strategies like supplier diversification and inventory expansion, though logistical bottlenecks and geopolitical tensions persist; 3. The article emphasizes the need for international collaboration and increased R&D investments to address shortages and meet future demand.
  • BWXT Technologies: Stable Government Business With Commercial Nuclear Growth Opportunities
    1. TSMC expands semiconductor production in the U.S. and Japan with government subsidies, facing challenges like construction delays and labor shortages in the U.S.; 2. Geopolitical tensions drive TSMC to diversify manufacturing bases to mitigate supply chain risks; 3. Japan's efficient subsidy distribution contrasts with U.S. bureaucratic hurdles, reflecting how state support shapes global chip industry dynamics.
  • Unleashing Appalachian Gas: EQT's Path To Sustainable Growth
    1. TSMC's 3nm chip production faces yield rate challenges, causing delays in mass production; 2. Apple has reduced orders for 3nm chips, while Qualcomm postponed its Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 launch; 3. TSMC is optimizing processes to improve yields, but technical hurdles and competition from Samsung and Intel persist.
  • June 27

  • AMD's Rally Has Just Begun
    1. TSMC's Q2 2023 revenue reached a record high, driven by surging demand for AI-related chips; 2. Advanced 3nm and 5nm process technologies contributed significantly to performance; 3. The company maintains a positive outlook due to sustained AI and high-performance computing (HPC) demand.
  • June 26

  • Nvidia: The Ride Has Just Begun
    1. TSMC faces yield challenges in its 3nm process technology; 2. Apple is compelled to accept non-compliant chips due to production constraints; 3. The issue highlights manufacturing hurdles in advanced chip fabrication impacting major tech clients.
  • Coinbase Is Unlocking A Trillion-Dollar Opportunity
    1. Coinbase is expanding beyond crypto trading into high-margin services like payments, credit cards, and tokenized stock trading; 2. New regulatory frameworks (e.g., stablecoin legislation, MiCA license) enhance its competitive edge; 3. The company is positioning itself as a future financial infrastructure leader with regulation as a strategic moat.
  • OXLC Is Offering Investors A Rare Opportunity
    1. MIT and NUS researchers developed Super-Diamondene, a 2D material combining diamond and graphene, potentially replacing silicon in semiconductors; 2. The material demonstrates 10x higher energy efficiency and 5x faster electron mobility, with applications in AI and climate solutions; 3. Commercialization requires 10-20 years for manufacturing process optimization and industry adoption.
  • Medical Properties Trust: A Bull Trap
    1. Samsung Electronics' operating profit plummeted 95% due to weak semiconductor demand and inventory pressures; 2. Global semiconductor market faces dual challenges of cyclical downturn and structural changes in AI chip demand; 3. Samsung plans to cut investment and optimize production while accelerating AI chip development to counter competition.
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