02/16/2025, 05:00 PM UTC
ASML：2025年指引可能忽视了这一不太可能但重大的事件ASML: 2025 Guidance May Have Overlooked An Unlikely But Significant Event
1、文章预测，中美在军事AI竞赛中的竞争可能导致美国加大对荷兰的出口管制压力。2、存在ASML可能失去对中国的DUV出口许可证的小但重大的风险，这可能会严重影响到2025年该地区预期的收入正常化。3、ASML 2025年指引的下调可能引发大规模抛售，并将股价推低至500美元中档支撑位。4、尽管长期前景可能会随着2026年及以后高NA EUV系统销售的提升而改善，但作者将ASML评级为12个月内的强烈卖出。1. The article predicts that the US-China military AI competition may lead the US to increase pressure on the Netherlands for stricter export controls. 2. There is a small but significant risk that ASML may lose its DUV export license to China, which could severely impact revenue normalization in this region in 2025. 3. A downward revision to ASML's 2025 guidance could trigger a significant sell-off and push the share price towards the mid-$500 support level. 4. Despite the long-term outlook potentially improving with high NA EUV system sales in 2026 and beyond, the author rates ASML as a strong sell with a 12-month timeframe.
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