02/27/2025, 06:45 AM UTC
尽管多次发出看跌信号，牛市仍持续上涨Bull Market Keeps Advancing Despite Multiple Bearish Signals
1、市场被认为正在追踪美国历史上第三次大投机泡沫的长期峰值，其估值指标比1929年和2000年的市场峰值更为极端。2、自2022年1月初的市场峰值以来，等权重标准普尔500指数累计回报率低于2.4%，而小盘股Russell 2000指数自那时起落后于国库券超过-10.6%。3、估值对长期回报有信息性，但对短期结果不可靠，因为投资者心理对短期市场表现有重大影响。1. The stock market is believed to be tracing out the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history, with valuation measures more extreme than both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks. 2. The equal-weighted S&P 500 has returned less than 2.4% since the initial January 2022 market peak, while the small-cap Russell 2000 has lagged T-bills by more than -10.6%. 3. Valuations are informative about long-term returns but not reliable for short-term outcomes, as investor psychology significantly impacts short-term market performance.---
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