04/13/2025, 08:47 AM UTC
从来都不是关税的问题。这是关于美元的问题It Was Never About Tariffs. It's About The Dollar
1、美中贸易战围绕美元/人民币汇率展开，中国的巨额美元债务创造了系统性风险；2、强势美元加剧了中国的脆弱性，增加了美元债务的偿还压力，并可能导致资本外逃；3、关税被用作地缘政治的谈判筹码，美国利用美元的强势地位来获得贸易让步；4、一项宏大的宏观交易涉及弱化美元，以缓解中国的经济压力，增加全球流动性，并使两国受益。1. The US-China trade war revolves around the dollar/renminbi exchange rate, with China's massive USD debt creating systemic risks; 2. A strong dollar exacerbates China's vulnerabilities, pressuring USD debt servicing and risking capital flight; 3. Tariffs are used as geopolitical bargaining chips, with the US leveraging dollar strength to gain trade concessions; 4. A grand macro bargain involves a weaker dollar to relieve China's financial strain, boosting global liquidity and benefiting both nations.---
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