03/11/2025, 09:27 AM UTC
为什么现在买ASML还为时尚早ASML: Why It's Too Early To Buy
1、ASML的安装基座服务收入是其增量增长的驱动力，但系统销售正在下降，引发对需求健康的担忧。2、单位销售量下降以及二手单位销售增加表明客户对价格越来越敏感。3、TTM净预订量开始下降，这表明长期需求风险。4、与半导体设备同行相比，估值低于正常水平，技术分析显示牛熊双方处于平衡状态。5、毛利率是一个关键的可监控指标，Q1 FY25的预期超出预期，但H2 FY25的前景被标记为较弱。1. ASML's installed base service revenue is its driver for incremental growth, but system sales are declining, raising concerns about demand health. 2. Declining unit sales volumes and an increase in used unit sales suggest rising price sensitivity among customers. 3. TTM net bookings are decreasing, indicating long-term demand risks. 4. Valuations are lower than usual compared to semiconductor equipment peers, and technical analysis shows a balanced fight between bulls and bears. 5. Gross margins are a key monitorable, with Q1 FY25 guidance beating expectations but a weaker outlook for H2 FY25.---
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