05/13/2025, 12:30 PM UTC
SPY：回调可能即将到来SPY: The Correction May Come Soon
1、标普500指数因贸易战缓和和一季度强劲盈利上涨12.5%，但涨势基础脆弱且不可持续；2、关税削减为临时措施，经济不确定性及45%的衰退概率仍存，盈利增长预计显著放缓；3、60%的公司支出指引低于市场预期，基本面变化或阻碍EPS快速回升，建议精选具有护城河或催化剂的个股。1. The S&P 500 surged 12.5% due to trade war de-escalation and strong Q1 earnings, but the rally's sustainability is questioned; 2. Risks include temporary tariff cuts, economic uncertainty with a 45% recession probability, and predicted earnings deceleration; 3. Companies increasingly guide spending below consensus, signaling challenges to EPS growth, advising selective equity investments in firms with strong moats or catalysts.---
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