06/08/2025, 02:00 PM UTC
通胀飙升，降息无望Forget About Rate Cuts As Inflation Heads Sharply Higher
1、预计到2025年底通胀率将超过3%，回归2022年后的增长趋势；2、CPI掉期和价格支付指数等市场指标显示通胀压力加剧，整体CPI同比预计为2.4%，核心CPI为2.9%；3、由于通胀持续且实际利率接近中性水平，美联储短期内不太可能降息，市场对降息的预期为时尚早。1. Inflation is projected to exceed 3% by late 2025, reverting to its post-2022 growth trajectory; 2. Market indicators such as CPI swaps and price-paid indexes signal rising inflation pressures, with headline CPI expected at 2.4% and core CPI at 2.9% year-over-year; 3. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates soon due to persistent inflation and neutral real rates, making current market expectations for cuts premature.---
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