03/28/2025, 06:06 AM UTC
关税导致内存库存下降Tariffs lead to fall in memory inventories
➀ 关税鼓励美国内存买家在第一季度下单，减少了库存；
➁ 第二季度DRAM价格预计将环比下降0-5%，而包括HBM在内的平均DRAM价格预计将上涨3-8%，这得益于HBM3e出货量的增加；
➂ 三星HBM认证进度慢于预期，但没有将大量产能从DRAM转向传统DRAM；
➃ 美光科技（SK hynix）专注于服务器和移动DRAM，限制了PC DDR5的供应；
➄ 由于消费需求低迷和供应商持续扩大产能，DDR4价格保持疲软，预计第二季度PC DRAM价格将环比持平；
➅ 服务器DRAM需求受到北美前三大云服务提供商和在中国加强AI服务器投资的推动，预计DDR5价格将在第二季度稳定，DDR4的下降幅度将小于预期，整体平均合同价格保持稳定；
➆ 移动DRAM需求有所改善。由于中国供应商的积极扩张，LPDDR4X供应充足，但价格预计只会小幅下降0-5%；
➇ 第二季度GDDR7需求主要来自下一代显卡备货，由于供应紧张，预计价格将保持平稳或略有下降；
➈ 预计GDDR6价格将下降3-8%，主要DRAM供应商捆绑销售以稳定合同价格和加速 库存清理；
➉ 消费者DRAM的购买更为积极，支持了季度环比增长，预计第二季度25年DDR4合同价格将上涨0-5%，而DDR3价格可能保持平稳。
➀ Tariffs have encouraged US memory buyers to get their orders in Q1, reducing inventories;
➁ DRAM prices expected to fall 0-5% QoQ in Q2, with HBM pricing to rise 3-8% due to HBM3e shipments;
➂ Samsung's HBM qualification progress slower than expected, but no significant capacity shift back to DRAM;
➃ SK hynix focusing on server and mobile DRAM, limiting PC DDR5 supply;
➄ DDR4 prices weak due to consumer demand and capacity expansion, with PC DRAM prices expected to remain flat QoQ in Q2;
➅ Server DRAM demand driven by top North American CSPs and AI server investment in China, with DDR5 prices expected to stabilise in Q2;
➆ Mobile DRAM demand improved, with LPDDR4X supply ample but prices expected to decline modestly;
➇ GDDR7 demand from next-gen graphics cards, with prices expected to hold flat or slightly down due to tight supply;
➈ GDDR6 prices expected to decline 3-8%, with suppliers bundling to stabilise pricing and clear inventory;
➉ Consumer DRAM seeing more aggressive purchasing, with DDR4 contract prices expected to rise 0-5% in 2Q25, and DDR3 prices likely to remain flat.
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