10/04/2024, 09:07 AM UTC
台積2奈米晶圓 價格將翻倍TSMC 2nm Wafer Prices Expected to Double
➀ 台積電的2奈米技術發展順利，新竹寶山新廠2025年開始量產計畫不變；➁ 2奈米晶圓價格預計將較4/5奈米翻倍，可能超過3萬美元，顯示其獨家供應局勢和價格優勢；➂ 先進製程投入巨大，3奈米研發投資超過40億美元，建設3奈米工廠成本至少150至200億美元；➃ 先進製程開發是漫長且資源密集的過程，通常需要7至10年時間，2奈米製程的路徑確認於2016年，但直到近期試產時程才逐漸明確；➄ 新的製程架構涉及龐大的工程，需要設備、軟件（包括IP、EDA工具）和材料三大業界的支持；➅ 台積電克服前期困難，滿足供應鏈本土化要求；➆ 隨著2奈米預計2025年問世，供應鏈企業有望迎來獲利成長；➇ M31的IP研發已切入支援智慧型手機和高性能運算的2奈米製程平台；➈ 力旺表示正與一線晶圓代工廠合作開發2奈米技術；➈ 材料公司中砂及昇陽半導體切入鑽石碟、再生晶圓等領域，再生晶圓產值約為28奈米的4.6倍，對企業來說可望出現量價齊揚的商業機會。➀ TSMC's 2nm technology development is progressing smoothly with plans for the new Taichung Hsinchu Science Park to start production in 2025; ➁ The price of the 2nm wafer is expected to be doubled compared to the 4/5nm, potentially exceeding $30,000, reflecting its sole supply situation and pricing power; ➂ The high investment in advanced process nodes, such as the over $4 billion for 3nm research and development, shows the importance of key supply chains; ➃ The cost of constructing a 3nm factory is estimated to be at least $15 to $20 billion; ➄ The development of advanced processes is a lengthy and resource-intensive process, often requiring 7 to 10 years, with the 2nm process having its path confirmed since 2016 but only recently becoming clear in terms of trial production timelines; ➅ The new process architecture involves substantial engineering support from equipment, software, and material industries; ➆ TSMC is following in the footsteps of the national mountain, overcoming many early difficulties and meeting the localization requirements of the supply chain; ➇ With the 2nm process expected to be released in 2025, supply chain companies are expected to see significant profit growth; ➈ M31's IP research has already entered the 2nm process platform supporting smartphones and high-performance computing, and Liwang is also developing 2nm technology in collaboration with leading wafer fabs; ➈ Material companies like Zhongsha and Shengyang Semiconductor are involved in diamond disks and recycled wafers for the 2nm process, with recycled wafers having a value approximately 4.6 times that of 28nm, offering significant commercial opportunities.
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