12/26/2024, 06:01 AM UTC
特朗普效应可能已见顶的五原因Five Reasons The Trump Bump May Have Peaked
1、我跟踪的五个每日股市回报周期均指向下行，暗示标普500的上涨可能结束。2、大流行期间美联储的激进宽松政策可能对股市产生长期负面影响。3、自2021年以来获得的巨额利润可能损害了未来的增长，标普500的收益可能比2008年危机期间下降更多。4、收益率曲线正在发出高风险信号，标普500可能下跌高达67%。5、与2008年金融危机期间相似的美国华盛顿的政治控制可能引发类似的衰退，可能从2025年开始。1. The five daily stock market return cycles I track are all pointing down, suggesting a potential end to the S&P 500's rise. 2. Aggressive Fed easing during the pandemic may have negative long-term effects on stocks. 3. Large profits taken since 2021 may have compromised future growth, with S&P 500 earnings potentially declining more than during the 2008 crisis. 4. The yield curve is signaling high risk, with potential S&P 500 declines of up to 67%. 5. Political control in Washington, similar to that during the 2008 financial crisis, may lead to a comparable downturn starting in 2025.---
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