04/14/2025, 05:32 AM UTC
微软：一家出色的企业，但这是为什么它不在我的投资组合中Microsoft: A Brilliant Business, But Here's Why It's Not In My Portfolio
1. 作者认为微软的AI增长故事很有吸引力，但质疑800亿美元的资本支出是否合理。2. 作者对数据中心放缓的迹象表示担忧，包括放弃120亿美元的CoreWeave扩展和推迟10亿美元的俄亥俄州项目。3. 作者认为微软的估值过高，与同行相比，市销率和市现率倍数仍然偏高。4. 在积极方面，作者指出，AI驱动的Azure增长强劲，AI服务为云收入31%的同比增长贡献了13个百分点。5. 作者倾向于持有评级，认为强劲的基本面被估值过高和AI基础设施需求放缓的迹象所抵消。1. The author finds Microsoft's AI growth story compelling but questions the justification of $80B in CapEx. 2. Concerns are raised about recent data center slowdown signals, such as the dropped $12B CoreWeave extension and the $1B delayed Ohio project. 3. The author sees Microsoft's valuation as stretched, with elevated P/S and P/CF multiples compared to peers. 4. On the positive side, strong AI-driven Azure growth is noted, with AI services contributing 13 points to a 31% yoy increase in cloud revenue. 5. The author leans towards a Hold rating, citing strong fundamentals offset by valuation and signs of softening AI infrastructure demand.---
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