01/11/2025, 05:46 PM UTC
艾利 Lilly：仍有很大空间跟随减肥浪潮Eli Lilly: Still Much Room To Ride The Weight-Loss Wave
1. 艾利 Lilly 的 GLP-1 市场主导地位得益于卓越的疗效和强大的制造投资，使其与诺和诺德并驾齐驱，预计到 2027 年收入将增长至 750 亿美元。2. 保守的估值模型预计艾利 Lilly 的股票在未来两年内将实现 25% 的复合年增长率，到 2027 年 1 月的合理目标价为 1200 美元。3. 关键风险包括来自新兴 GLP-1 药企的竞争以及下一代口服 GLP-1 药物如 Orforglipron 可能出现的延迟或挫折，但股票 25% 的安全边际支撑了我的评级。1. Eli Lilly's GLP-1 market dominance is supported by superior efficacy and strong manufacturing investments, positioning it as a leader alongside Novo Nordisk with forecasted revenue growth to $75B by 2027. 2. A conservative valuation model estimates Eli Lilly's stock to achieve a 25% CAGR over two years, with a fair price target of $1,200 by January 2027. 3. Key risks include competition from emerging GLP-1 drugmakers and potential delays or setbacks in next-gen oral GLP-1 drugs like Orforglipron, but the stock's 25% margin of safety underpins my rating.
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